Special session on: "Uncertainty assessment and validation of hydrological, hydraulic and environmental modelling"
Since the middle of the 1980s, models have been widely employed both by researchers and practitioners for hydrological and hydraulic issues and later on since the second half of the 1990s for pollutant loads and concentrations. The enhancement of computational capacities supported the development of progressively more complex models that have been often applied without adequate consciousness about their reliability.
In this context, the uncertainty analysis and model validation protocols can provide useful hints for evaluating model reliability depending on available data. Uncertainty analysis is important for obtaining knowledge on the sources of error in the modelling process, for defining priorities for model improvement, for providing guidance for data-gathering campaigns.
Methods and protocols have been developed and applied in different scientific fields and transferred to water sciences with variable success depending on model complexity and data availability.
This session will provide a comprehensive overview and a discussion platform for recent advances and trends currently under development in this cross-cutting field.
Papers dealing with development and concepts of generic and pervasive frameworks, techniques and issues including system identification theory and practice, model conception, model integration, model and/or software evaluation, sensitivity and uncertainty assessment, visualization, scale and regionalization issues are welcome.
Suitable topics for presentations will include:
- key criteria in selecting methods of uncertainty assessment for different model structures and modelling problems;
- practical strategies for uncertainty analysis given environmental models with very large parameter sets, including spatial dimensions or high computing loads;
- development of new methods for explicitly conveying uncertainties in environmental modelling including the use of Bayesian probability theory and new hybrid approaches;
- quantifying environmental model responses to uncertainties in parameter values and input data;
- space-time scale effects on uncertainty assessment of integrated environmental models.
- Model and parameter identification and propagation of uncertainty through modelling
Well documented case studies and applications are also welcome.
Paper formats and styles:
Papers for the special session have to comply with the Conference format that can be downloaded in Italian or in English
Key dates:
28 Feb 2010 - Submission of FULL papers
30 Mar 2010 - Feedback by Reviewers
15 Apr 2010 - Submission of final paper
30 Apr 2010 - Notification of acceptance
14-17 Sept 2010 - Conference
Oct - Nov 2010 - Invitation to submit a revised version for possible pubblication on Physics and Chemistry of the Earth
Special Issue due by summer 2011
Contacts:
Alberto Montanari - DISTART, University of Bologna (IT)
Gabriele Freni - DIIAA, University of Palermo(IT)
Giorgio Mannina - DIIAA, University of Palermo (IT)
mannina@idra.unipa.it
